1.2 Parameter estimation
To use the model, realistic parameter estimates are required. In particular, the parameter p, the probability of an intrinsic leak or failure, is extremely important; if p were zero, absolute conspiracy would be maintained, only resolvable by extrinsic analysis. In practice, this is not the case—historical examples show that even in incredibly secretive organizations, there is always some possibility of an accidental or intentional intrinsic leak whether by whistle-blowing or ineptitude. By definition, details of conspiracy are rarely known but we may very conservatively estimate parameters using data from exposed examples where sufficient data on duration and number of conspirators is publicly available. The three examples used here are namely
The National Security Agency (NSA) PRISM affair—The staggering extent of spying by the NSA and its allies on civilian internet users  was exposed by contractor Edward Snowden in 2013. The extent of the eavesdropping was unprecedented, including the tapping of fiber-optic cables, phone calls from allied heads of state and a huge amount of meta-data .
The Tuskegee syphilis experiment—In 1932 the US Public Health Service began an observational study on African-American men who had contracted syphilis in Alabama. The study became unethical in the mid 1940s, when penicillin was shown to effectively cure the ailment and yet was not given to the infected men. Ethical questions about the research were raised in the mid 1960s, and finally exposed by researcher Dr. Peter Buxtun in 1972 [31–33].
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) forensic scandal—Dr. Frederic Whitehurst wrote hundreds of letters to his superiors detailing the pseudoscientific nature of many of the FBI forensics tests. The dubious nature of these protocols resulted in a large number of innocent men being detained for decades, several of whom were executed for these crimes or died in prison, before Whitehurst exposed the debacle in 1998. A subsequent report by the FBI and Department of justice found that at least 26 of the 28 dedicated hair analysts gave misleading testimony, prompting an on-going massive re-evaluation of unsafe convictions [34, 35].